WASHINGTON — In a promising trend for the Kamala Harris campaign and Democrats, women are leading men in early voting turnout by nearly 10 percentage points.
As of Friday, 53% of early voters nationwide are women, while 44% are men, according to TargetSmart, a Democratic-affiliated firm tracking early voting data. This margin mirrors the early voting statistics from the 2020 election when Joe Biden won, suggesting a consistent pattern. Democrats are particularly optimistic, as women, who polls indicate support Harris over Donald Trump by a significant margin, have maintained this lead despite an increase in Republican voter participation.
“The enthusiasm among Democratic women appears to be driving this turnout. Even as Republican votes rise, the gender gap remains intact,” noted Tom Bonier, CEO of TargetSmart.
Over 67 million Americans have voted early, according to the University of Florida’s Election Project. TargetSmart’s data is based on the first 55 million early votes. In the 2020 election, more than 100 million Americans voted early.
While the specifics of voter preferences remain confidential, current polling indicates a historic gender divide: Harris leads among women by 53% to 36%, whereas Trump leads among men by 53% to 37%, according to a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll conducted from October 14 to 18.
In key battleground states, early voting gender gaps are as follows, according to TargetSmart:
- Pennsylvania: Women have a 14-point turnout advantage over men.
- Michigan: Women lead by 10 points.
- Wisconsin: Women have an 8-point edge.
- North Carolina: Women are ahead by 11 points.
- Georgia: Women lead by 12 points.
- Nevada: Turnout is nearly equal, with women slightly ahead.
- Arizona: Women have a 5-point advantage.
Historically, these gender gaps tend to narrow as more men vote on Election Day. In 2020, women made up about 52% of the total votes cast.
Democrats have seen increasing support from women in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Harris has been vocal about restoring abortion rights, holding Trump accountable for the ruling due to his Supreme Court appointments. She called Trump’s recent comments about protecting women “offensive.”
“The women of America are definitely voting,” a senior Harris campaign official stated. “We know the vice president is outperforming Trump among female voters.”
Some Republicans have expressed concern over the early voting trends. Conservative activist Charlie Kirk emphasized, “If men stay home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple,” urging male voters to turn out.
Despite these concerns, the Trump campaign remains untroubled. A campaign official pointed to evidence suggesting lower turnout among Democratic male voters, which may explain the gender gap. Data showed that only 39% of early Democratic voters in Pennsylvania were men, with similar figures in North Carolina and Nevada.
“To all their bragging about more women in the electorate, it appears that Democrat men aren’t showing up—at least not yet,” the Trump official remarked.
Democrats argue that the 2020 gender gap remains relevant in 2024, despite Republican gains in early voting. In states with party registration, Democratic voters made up 47% of early votes compared to 44% for Republicans, indicating a narrower gap than in 2020.
Harris allies believe that the shift in voting behavior reflects Republicans who previously voted on Election Day now opting for early voting. They also suggest that many Democrats have returned to their usual voting habits after being more cautious during the pandemic.
“What we’ve seen since the Dobbs decision is that women have become more politically engaged, and that momentum is reflected in the early vote,” Bonier added.
The Harris campaign also highlighted recent momentum among undecided voters, with internal data suggesting Harris is leading Trump by “double digits” among those who decided in the last week. A senior official pointed to a recent Trump rally that included controversial remarks as a moment that solidified voter choices.
In contrast, Karoline Leavitt, the Trump campaign’s national press secretary, dismissed the positive trends for Harris, criticizing her campaign for attempting to shift the narrative amid ongoing challenges. “What part of the last week would encourage people to vote for Kamala Harris?” she asked, referencing President Biden’s controversial comments about Trump supporters. “Harris has faced a series of bad news cycles because she’s not resonating with voters.”