Donald Trump’s return to the White House in 2025 has not changed how Europeans vote, according to a new report by the European Policy Centre (EPC). Despite early fears of a right-wing surge, experts found that European voters stayed focused on local issues. The EPC’s findings come after months of political analysis across Europe.
In the months leading up to and following the 2025 US election, many believed Trump’s win would inspire far-right movements across the European Union. Populist leaders in Europe cheered his victory, hoping it would boost their own anti-immigration and anti-climate agendas. But the EPC’s research shows that Trump’s return did not create a ripple effect across European polls.
European Voters Remain Focused on Local Concerns
Javier Carbonell, a senior researcher at the EPC, said that while US politics grabs headlines, European voters are not easily swayed by American trends. “Trump has not changed European voting behaviour,” Carbonell stated. “Europeans vote based on national issues, not what happens in Washington.”
He explained that although stock markets and tech companies might react to US elections, average voters care more about things like inflation, jobs, and local services.
Far-Right Support Unchanged Since Trump’s Return
The EPC study tracked voter behaviour from October 2024 to April 2025. In that period, there were no major changes in support for far-right parties across the continent. In countries like Austria, Germany, Spain, and Portugal, voters showed consistent preferences, with little variation after the US election.
In Eastern and Central Europe—where far-right parties often do well—support levels also remained stable. Hungary, Poland, Italy, and the Czech Republic all showed flat polling numbers for their nationalist parties.
Meanwhile, in countries with weaker far-right movements, such as Sweden, Finland, Slovenia, and Denmark, there were no new signs of voter interest in Trump-style politics.
The only country excluded from the study was Romania. Data from Romania became unreliable following the annulled 2024 presidential election. For accuracy, EPC researchers chose not to include it in the regional average.
Average Support for Far-Right Parties Holds at 24–25%
Overall, the report found that far-right parties across the EU maintain between 24% and 25% of voter support—a number that has held steady for months. Trump’s win did not lift those figures, nor did it inspire new support.
Polls from French research firm Cluster 17 and Le Grand Continent showed only 6% to 8% of voters in France, Germany, and Spain viewed Trump as a political ally.
A separate YouGov survey found that US favourability dropped sharply in many European countries after Trump’s victory. Support fell 20 to 30 percentage points in places like Germany, France, Sweden, and Denmark.
Economic Moves Spark Distrust in Europe
Much of that decline is linked to Trump’s economic policies. Since taking office again, Trump has imposed heavy tariffs on EU exports. These new taxes have hurt industries in countries like France, where the Cognac sector relies heavily on US sales.
Experts say that these trade barriers undercut European hopes for partnership. Instead of boosting far-right support, Trump’s policies have frustrated both consumers and business leaders.
Populist Copycats Fail to Inspire Change
The report also looked at efforts by European parties to mimic Trump’s style and language. Spain’s far-right Vox party hosted a “Make Europe Great Again” summit. Tesla CEO Elon Musk also appeared alongside Germany’s AfD leader Alice Weidel at a separate event.
While these stunts attracted attention, they failed to move voter support. Carbonell noted that such events “gain headlines but not votes.”
Europe Not Following Canada’s Lead
In contrast, Canada saw a real political shift after Trump’s win. There, Liberal parties made gains while Conservatives lost ground. But in Europe, voter behaviour remains unchanged. Carbonell said this shows that Europe’s political culture is more independent than many assume.
Root Causes of Right-Wing Support Are Domestic
Tabea Schaumann, a co-author of the EPC report, said that support for far-right groups in Europe is linked to frustration at home. She listed reasons like slow economic growth, high inequality, and fears about cultural changes.
“Every country has its own reasons,” Schaumann explained. In Spain, for example, political unrest in Catalonia affects national votes. In France and Germany, issues like immigration and cost-of-living are more important than foreign politics.
Schaumann said some people also feel alienated by topics like sustainability, feminism, and diversity. These social shifts can push voters toward far-right groups, but only when paired with domestic struggles.
Europe Charts Its Own Political Course
The EPC report makes it clear that Europe’s voters are not influenced by Trump’s return to power. While his presence may fuel news cycles, it does not shift ballots. Across Europe, national debates still drive political outcomes.
Far-right parties remain active, but their support is rooted in homegrown problems, not foreign influence. As EU elections near, the lesson is simple: European politics belong to Europeans.