Vice President Kamala Harris holds a 4-point lead over former President Donald Trump, according to the final national poll before Election Day. The survey, conducted by Marist and sponsored by NPR and PBS, polled 1,297 likely voters. Results show Harris at 51% and Trump at 47%, with 2% backing a third-party candidate. The poll’s margin of error is ±3.5 percentage points, making Harris’s lead statistically significant.
Shift in Voter Demographics and Gender Trends
Harris has seen significant gains among male voters, cutting into Trump’s traditional advantage with this group. Trump now leads men 51%-47%, down from a 16-point lead in earlier polls. Harris continues to hold a solid lead among women, 55%-45%, though her advantage has narrowed slightly from an earlier 18-point lead.
Among early voters, 56% have already cast ballots for Harris, while 53% of those who haven’t voted yet prefer Trump. The poll collected responses via phone, text, and online from October 31 to November 2. Of the participants, 55% reported having already voted.
Path to Victory and Key Insights from Polling Experts
Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, stated that Harris is well-positioned to win the popular vote. However, he emphasized the difficulty of securing 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. “Harris is well-positioned to carry the popular vote for president but needs to navigate a narrow path to achieving 270 in the Electoral College,” Miringoff said. He also noted that Trump’s high unfavorable ratings remain a critical barrier for his campaign.
The Marist poll reflects a larger trend of momentum shifting toward Harris in the campaign’s final days. Other recent polls, including a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll, show Harris performing well in traditionally Republican strongholds like Iowa. These developments suggest growing support for Harris even in states that had been considered safe for Trump. Nationally, the race remains close, but Harris’s upward trajectory is evident.
The Role of the Margin of Error and Improved Polling Methods
The margin of error highlights the potential range of uncertainty in poll results. A lead within the margin of error signifies a statistical tie, according to the Pew Research Center. In this poll, Harris’s 4-point lead exceeds the ±3.5-point margin of error, signaling a meaningful advantage.
Since the 2016 and 2020 elections, pollsters have updated their methods to address past underestimations of Trump’s support. Pew Research reports that many polling organizations have improved their methodologies to produce more accurate results. These changes suggest that the final Marist poll could offer a clearer view of the electorate’s preferences as Election Day approaches.