Vice President Kamala Harris faced a challenging path to the White House as she aimed to secure victory through the “blue wall” states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Initially, Democrats believed this trio of states, which had traditionally supported Democratic presidential nominees from 1992 to 2012, would be key to Harris’s success. However, Donald Trump once again made substantial gains in these states, flipping them in his favor and securing a clear electoral victory. Harris ultimately lost by 44 electoral votes, having won 226 to Trump’s 312.
In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris lost by narrow margins: Michigan by 1.4%, Pennsylvania by 2.1%, and Wisconsin by 0.9%. While these gaps were slight, they proved significant enough to tilt the Electoral College against her. Additionally, Harris did not succeed in winning any other major swing states, making the loss of these three crucial to her campaign’s outcome.
Throughout her campaign, Harris struggled with suburban voters, an area where Democrats had hoped to make inroads. While Biden previously won suburban voters by a slight margin, Trump captured this demographic by four points in 2024, marking a setback for Harris. She performed well in several key suburban counties, such as Oakland County in Michigan, Montgomery County in Pennsylvania, and Dane County in Wisconsin, but failed to offset Trump’s strong support in rural and exurban areas, along with his gains among Black men and Latino voters. This included notable losses in cities like Dearborn, Michigan, where discontent over the Biden administration’s handling of the Gaza conflict led to Arab American voters turning to Trump.
Another challenge Harris faced was securing the union vote, which traditionally leans Democratic. While she received support from public-sector union leaders, she encountered a divide in endorsements from unions like the Teamsters and the International Association of Fire Fighters, with many rank-and-file members favoring Trump. In critical states like Wisconsin, Trump won 51% of union households compared to Harris’s 49%, further underscoring her difficulty in rallying enough support within the labor movement to hold the blue wall.
Despite her campaign efforts, including a 107-day sprint to reach voters and build connections, Harris’s support among working-class Americans was eclipsed by Trump’s strength on economic issues, which was consistently a top concern for voters. According to exit polls, 32% of voters identified the economy as their primary concern, with a large majority—80%—backing Trump.
These factors combined to thwart Harris’s bid for the White House, as Trump’s coalition remained resilient, flipping the crucial blue wall states back to the Republican column.