A 10% tariff on all European Union (EU) exports to the United States could create major economic disruptions in Europe. While Germany, Ireland, and Italy are often highlighted as key US trade partners, many other EU nations also rely heavily on the American market. This article explores which EU countries depend most on US exports and examines the potential impact of the proposed tariff.
During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump pledged to introduce stricter trade policies with the EU, including tariffs on European imports. “They [the EU] don’t buy our cars or our farm products, but they sell millions of cars in the United States,” Trump stated. “They will have to pay a big price.” Following his electoral victory, the EU now faces the threat of a 10% tariff on all its exports to the US, a move that could significantly alter trade relations.
Which EU Countries Would Be Most Affected?
Germany, Ireland, and Italy are the EU’s top exporters to the US. In 2023, Germany exported €157.7 billion in goods to the US, the highest of any EU country, according to Eurostat. Italy followed with €67.3 billion, while Ireland exported €51.6 billion. Combined, these three nations accounted for 55% of the EU’s total exports to the US.
Other significant exporters include France (€43.9 billion), the Netherlands (€40.5 billion), Belgium (€31.3 billion), and Spain (€18.9 billion). If the proposed tariff is implemented, these countries would face considerable challenges due to the volume of their exports to the US.
Which Countries Depend Most on US Markets?
Export volume alone does not tell the full story. The percentage of each country’s exports going to the US also determines the potential impact. “Extra-EU exports” refer to exports outside the EU, excluding trade within the EU bloc.
Ireland is the most US-dependent EU economy, with 45.8% of its extra-EU exports heading to the US in 2023. This reliance makes Ireland particularly vulnerable to any trade restrictions. Seven other EU nations have 20% or more of their extra-EU exports going to the US. These countries include Finland, Austria, Portugal, Italy, Germany, Slovakia, and Sweden.
In contrast, Spain’s exposure is lower, with only 13% of its extra-EU exports heading to the US. France’s figure stands at 16%. Smaller EU countries like Slovenia, Cyprus, and Greece send less than 10% of their extra-EU exports to the US, meaning the impact on these economies would be limited.
Ireland: Most Reliant on US Exports
Ireland’s dependence on US exports is striking. In 2023, 26.6% of all Irish exports went to the US, significantly higher than other EU countries. Ireland’s reliance on the US market sets it apart from the rest of Europe and highlights its economic exposure.
Other EU countries with significant exposure to the US market include Finland (11.1%), Italy (10.7%), and Germany (9.9%). Among the EU’s four largest economies, France sends 7.3% of its total exports to the US, while Spain’s share is only 4.8%.
Nordic and Smaller EU Countries at Risk
Several Nordic countries also have a large share of their exports going to the US. Finland’s reliance is notable, with 11.1% of its total exports heading to the US, second only to Ireland. Sweden follows with 8.9% of its exports destined for the US, while Denmark’s share stands at 8.3%.
Other smaller EU countries that would feel the impact include Austria (7.1%), Portugal (6.8%), and Belgium (6.3%). In total, 10 EU countries send more than 5% of their total exports to the US, meaning a 10% tariff would have broad implications beyond the largest economies.
Impact on Sweden and Finland
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has warned that a 10% tariff on EU exports could have a “severe impact” on Sweden’s economy. Industries that rely on US demand, such as manufacturing and technology, would face heightened risks. To prepare, Sweden is planning for potential disruptions, including wider trade tensions between the US and China, which could exacerbate the issue.
Finland faces similar risks, as the US is its largest non-EU trading partner. Key Finnish industries, such as steel, machinery, paper, and technology, could be hit hard by the tariff. Finnish exporters are preparing for increased barriers to entry into the US market.
UK’s Trade with the US
For non-EU countries like the UK, the US remains a key trade partner. In 2023, 15.6% of the UK’s total exports went to the US, amounting to approximately €74 billion. This highlights the ongoing importance of the US market for European nations even after Brexit.
Conclusion: A Widespread Economic Disruption
A 10% tariff on EU exports to the US would have a sweeping impact across Europe. While Germany, Ireland, and Italy would face the most significant challenges, smaller economies like Sweden, Finland, and Austria are also at risk. Countries with high US export shares, including several Nordic and southern European nations, would experience heightened pressure on their economies. As the EU prepares its response to the proposed tariff, it is clear that the effects would be felt across a wide range of member states, not just the largest exporters.