Trump’s Position on Syria
Donald Trump vowed to keep America out of foreign conflicts. He recently emphasized this stance regarding Syria. While visiting Paris, Trump posted on Truth Social, stating, “Syria is a mess, but not our fight.” He insisted the U.S. should avoid involvement in Syria’s issues.
His comments reflect his campaign’s central message of non-intervention. However, Assad’s fall has caused shifts in Middle East power dynamics. Many wonder if Trump can truly stay uninvolved.
Potential Challenges Ahead
The Biden administration is currently engaged in diplomatic efforts following Assad’s ousting. Antony Blinken, Secretary of State, is rallying support from regional leaders in Jordan and Turkey. The U.S. aims to push for a transparent, non-terrorist, and inclusive Syrian government. They also seek to ensure Syria does not pose threats to its neighbors or retain chemical weapons.
The fall of Assad created a vacuum filled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a U.S.-designated terrorist group. The U.S. hopes to control Syria’s future government’s actions. This raises questions about Trump’s ability to disengage from the situation entirely.
The Role of Trump’s Team
Mike Waltz, Trump’s pick for national security adviser, said Trump’s priority is to avoid new wars in the Middle East. Waltz noted Trump’s “core interests” in Syria: fighting ISIS, supporting Israel, and maintaining Gulf Arab alliances. Syria, in his view, is just one piece of the broader Middle East puzzle.
Trump’s approach also involves securing a diplomatic deal to normalize Israel-Saudi Arabia relations. He sees this as a chance to further weaken Iran’s influence in the region. Trump’s approach to Syria mirrors his past views. He once described Syria as a “land of sand and death” and showed little interest in its affairs.
U.S. Military Presence in Syria
The U.S. currently has 900 troops stationed east of the Euphrates River. Officially, their role is to combat ISIS and train the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). This military presence also limits Iran’s ability to transfer weapons to Hezbollah. While Trump’s stance is to avoid involvement, his officials have noted a need for action if U.S. interests are threatened.
Conflicting Perspectives on Trump’s Strategy
Robert Ford, former U.S. ambassador to Syria, believes Trump’s anti-interventionist rhetoric may be tempered by ground realities. He notes that some in Trump’s team prioritize counterterrorism, which may necessitate involvement in Syria.
Wa’el Alzayat, a former U.S. State Department adviser, points out that Trump’s administration includes “serious players” like Senator Marco Rubio, his pick for Secretary of State. Rubio’s more proactive foreign policy views may influence Trump’s approach.
Past Actions Contradict Non-Intervention Claims
During Trump’s first term, he reduced CIA funding for Syrian rebels and withdrew troops from northern Syria. However, his 2017 missile strike on Syria’s Shayrat Airbase, following Assad’s chemical attack, contradicted his anti-intervention stance. Additionally, Trump’s administration doubled down on sanctions targeting Syria’s leadership.
Mike Waltz acknowledged that Trump’s “not our fight” pledge does not mean complete disengagement. He noted Trump’s readiness to act decisively if U.S. interests are threatened.
Key Figures in Trump’s Administration
Tulsi Gabbard’s appointment as Director of National Intelligence also draws attention. Gabbard’s 2017 visit to Assad and her past criticism of U.S. Syria policy sparked controversy. Her role may influence U.S. intelligence views on Syria, adding complexity to Trump’s stance.
Implications for Biden’s Approach
Biden’s and Trump’s approaches to Syria have similarities. Both aim for a Syrian government aligned with U.S. interests. Both want to diminish Iran’s and Russia’s roles in Syria. However, Biden’s support for Kurdish allies contrasts with Trump’s less-committed approach.
Bassam Barabandi, a former Syrian diplomat, predicts Trump will withdraw U.S. troops slowly, unlike the swift Afghanistan withdrawal. Barabandi expects Trump to set a specific timeline for the withdrawal and arrange security measures beforehand.
Turkey’s Role in Syria’s Future
Trump’s relationship with Turkish President Erdogan could play a crucial role. Turkey’s tensions with the SDF, which it sees as a terrorist group, add to the complexity. Since Assad’s fall, Turkey has launched airstrikes to force Kurdish fighters from strategic areas. A potential deal with Erdogan could see Turkey’s influence in Syria increase, worrying some U.S. officials.
Conclusion
Trump’s goal to avoid entanglement in Syria faces significant obstacles. Regional power shifts, U.S. military commitments, and the presence of HTS complicate his plans. The involvement of key figures like Rubio, Waltz, and Gabbard suggests that Trump’s isolationist ideals may face pushback. While his “not our fight” stance is clear, achieving it may prove much harder than it seems.