Russia’s military bases in Syria are at risk following the ousting of Kremlin ally, President Bashar al-Assad. The two key bases are the Tartus Naval Base on the Mediterranean coast and the Khmeimim Air Base near Latakia. These outposts are crucial for Russia’s strategic influence in the region.
Conflicting Claims About Withdrawal
Ukraine’s military intelligence says Russia is pulling out troops, weapons, and equipment from Syria. Satellite images show Russian warships leaving Tartus and anchoring 8-13 kilometers offshore. Reports from OSINT analysts also suggest this fleet includes frigates, submarines, and supply ships.
However, Russia denies these claims. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov says Moscow is ensuring the security of the bases. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov insists Russia’s warships will remain in Tartus. Russian state media claims a deal secures the bases, allowing Assad and his family to seek refuge in Russia.
Strategic Impact of Losing Syrian Bases
A retreat from Syria would weaken Russia’s influence. The Tartus base provides vital access to the Mediterranean and African regions. Losing these bases would disrupt Russia’s logistics and operations in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warns that Russia’s power projection in Africa could suffer.
For now, the fate of these bases remains uncertain amid conflicting reports and ongoing geopolitical tension.