Experts caution that achieving net-zero aviation by 2050, while noble, could significantly raise travel costs.
The Vision of Jet Zero
Imagine boarding a flight with a budget ticket, luggage stowed, engines ready, and zero environmental guilt. This dream defines “Jet Zero,” a concept of carbon-neutral air travel driven by green technology and emissions offsetting. Launched in 2022 under Boris Johnson’s leadership, the initiative aimed for UK aviation to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. The current Labour government supports similar goals, including zero-emission domestic flights and airport operations by 2040.
But the challenge is vast. For instance, a single London-New York flight produces 309 kg of CO2 per passenger. Offsetting this requires the carbon absorption of 10 mature trees over a year. Globally, the aviation industry would need to plant around 100 billion trees annually. In the UK alone, it would require a forest the size of Wales.
Can Jet Zero Be Achieved?
Former aviation minister Anthony Browne claims the impact on ticket prices will be “marginal.” “Most consumers won’t notice,” he said. However, some experts, like Oxford’s Sir Dieter Helm, disagree. “There will definitely be higher costs,” Helm stated, emphasizing that governments hesitate to admit travelers will bear the burden. The exact cost hinges on how emissions are cut or offset.
Technological Innovations: Key Developments
The UK’s Jet Zero strategy emphasizes new technologies, better operations, and sustainable fuels. Aircraft efficiency has improved since 1969, notably with high-bypass turbofan engines in the Boeing 747. Innovations like “sharklets” (curved wing tips) boost fuel efficiency by 4% per flight. Rolls-Royce’s UltraFan engine, tested in 2023, could cut fuel use by 10%. It achieves this by letting the turbine run faster while slowing the larger fan. Yet, the engine may not be commercially available until the 2030s, and even a 10% cut may be insufficient alone.
Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF)
Jet engines burn fossil fuels, the main source of aviation CO2. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) aims to change that. SAF is made from biomass and waste, with the first SAF flight in 2008 using babassu nuts and coconuts. By 2040, the UK aims for 22% of its jet fuel to be SAF-based. But UK production relies on used cooking oil, often imported from Asia, adding to the carbon footprint. Large-scale SAF production also requires renewable electricity to be sustainable. Sir Dieter Helm remains skeptical, calling truly sustainable aviation fuel a “difficult concept.”
Optimizing Flight Paths
Airlines could lower emissions by modernizing flight routes. Planes currently follow routes based on decades-old beacon systems. More direct paths would cut emissions. Advances in satellite technology now allow planes to fly just 14 miles apart over the Atlantic, compared to 40 miles previously. The UK’s Jet Zero strategy estimates this, combined with other fuel efficiencies, could cut emissions by 15% by 2050. But Chris Norsworthy of National Air Traffic Services warns of the complexity, calling it a “very, very complicated” process.
Electric and Hydrogen Planes
Electric planes offer another solution. Inventor Stephen Fitzpatrick’s VX4 plane, powered by lithium-ion batteries, has a 100-mile range due to battery weight. Fitzpatrick hopes battery tech will improve, with hydrogen fuel cells extending range. Hydrogen-powered planes may also play a role. ZeroAvia aims to launch an 80-seat hydrogen-powered plane in 2-3 years. Airbus is developing similar aircraft, but initial models will be small and short-range. Electric planes could replace short-haul flights, but long-haul replacements are unlikely soon.
The Cost of Offsetting Emissions
With current plans, the government predicts aviation emissions will only fall by one-third by 2050. To address this, the Jet Zero strategy proposes charging airlines for CO2 emissions and requiring offset payments. Airlines already pay a duty, passed to consumers as a £7 fee for domestic flights, £14 for short-haul, and £92 for long-haul trips. Carbon offset fees would be an additional cost. Some experts doubt these schemes’ effectiveness. Cait Hewitt of the Aviation Environment Federation argues they might mislead consumers about the actual impact.
Duncan McCourt, CEO of Sustainable Aviation, maintains that the cost of carbon-neutral flights won’t significantly raise fares. But the Jet Zero plan avoids directly discussing passenger costs, referencing “demand management” instead. Sir Dieter Helm remains unconvinced that Jet Zero’s 2050 goal is realistic, warning of inevitable price hikes. With air travel demand set to grow, achieving Jet Zero may become even more challenging.
