Meteorologists are tracking a low-pressure system in the western Caribbean that could affect the U.S. this week. While its exact impact remains uncertain, weather experts are urging caution.
System Gains Strength and Triggers Warnings
The system, classified as potential tropical cyclone 18, has triggered hurricane watches in the Cayman Islands. Jamaica is under tropical storm warnings, with Cuba also expected to experience storm effects.
AccuWeather’s Dan Pydynowski believes the system may develop into Tropical Storm Rafael. If it tracks west of Jamaica, it could even become a hurricane. Regardless of its classification, Rafael could impact the central and eastern Gulf Coast. Pydynowski advises Gulf Coast residents to remain vigilant.
“Even with cooler waters and wind shear, the system will still produce strong winds and heavy rain,” he explained. “Even as a tropical storm, it will cause notable impacts.”
Rain, Flood Risks, and U.S. Preparations
The National Hurricane Center predicts heavy rain across Jamaica and parts of Cuba, increasing flood and mudslide risks. Rainfall is also expected to extend into Florida and southeastern U.S. states later this week.
Cuban residents and those in the Florida Keys have been advised to monitor the system’s progress. The U.S. has already endured a devastating hurricane season, with five hurricanes causing 300 fatalities and $130 billion in damages.
Historically, only four hurricanes have struck the continental U.S. in November, the most recent being Nicole, which hit Florida two years ago. Hurricane season runs until November 30, keeping the risk of storms alive for several more weeks.
Conditions Favor Further Storm Development
The system’s future remains uncertain, but warm Caribbean waters and low wind shear create conditions that could strengthen it. Forecasters are watching for signs of intensification once the system moves north of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico.
“While rare, hurricanes can still develop in November,” noted Pydynowski. “Water temperatures in the upper 70s are warm enough to support storm development.”
The system’s interaction with cooler Gulf waters and wind shear could weaken it. However, if it moves quickly, it could retain strength. A slower-moving system may encounter cooler waters, reducing its intensity.
Additionally, a trough of low pressure near the southern Bahamas is producing showers and thunderstorms. This trough might merge with the developing system, further complicating forecasts.
Weather models hint at additional activity in the northern Caribbean and southwestern Atlantic near the Bahamas. With nearly a month left in hurricane season, the potential for more storms persists.