The sudden rebel offensive could pose the most significant threat to President Bashar al-Assad in 13 years of war. Recent events have rapidly upended Syria’s fragile status quo.
Syrian officials initially claimed the military would hold Hama, even as rebels entered the city. Shortly after, the army admitted its withdrawal, ceding Hama to insurgents for the first time. Within a week, the Islamist-led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) captured two major cities, with Homs as the next target. Tens of thousands of residents are fleeing Homs, anticipating a fierce battle.
Strategic Stakes: Homs and Beyond
Homs is a critical crossroads, connecting Assad’s support base in the west to Damascus in the south. HTS’s recent gains suggest a direct challenge to Assad’s rule is inevitable. HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani confirmed their intent to overthrow Assad in a CNN interview. Attention now shifts to whether Assad can resist this renewed push for his removal.
The Syrian army, plagued by poor morale, low pay, and desertions, depends heavily on external support. Assad recently raised soldiers’ salaries by 50%, but this alone won’t reverse the situation. Russian air support in Hama was insufficient, raising doubts about Moscow’s capacity to maintain its pivotal role in Syria. Ongoing war in Ukraine has drained Russia’s military resources, yet Moscow has strong reasons to stay committed to Assad. Syria’s Tartus naval base remains Russia’s only foothold in the Mediterranean, making its defense vital.
Iran, another of Assad’s key backers, seems less aggressive than before. While Hezbollah remains involved, its strength has been diminished after recent clashes with Israel. Elite Hezbollah fighters have reportedly joined the fight in Homs, but Iran appears hesitant to engage in full-scale support.
Fragmented Opposition and Assad’s Survival
Rebel disunity has long been an advantage for Assad. Alongside HTS, Kurdish-led forces, Turkish-backed groups, and others hold sway in different regions. Even the Islamic State could exploit the chaos to expand beyond its desert strongholds. Assad’s survival depends on his forces, allies like Russia and Iran, and divisions among his opponents.
Minority groups, including Assad’s Alawite sect, continue to support him as the “least-worst” option. Many fear HTS, despite its distancing from al-Qaeda, remains a jihadist threat. Outside powers, including Russia, Iran, and Turkey, must soon reassess their strategies. The fate of Syria—and Assad—hinges on whether these players prefer stability with Assad or the uncertainties of his removal.