Gas Crisis Fuels Coal’s Rising Demand
Global coal consumption is expected to reach 8.7 billion tonnes in 2023, setting a new record. The ongoing global gas crisis, triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has significantly boosted coal use as countries seek cost-effective energy alternatives.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports unprecedented coal production, trade, and power generation since the start of the crisis. This trend reverses the decline in coal demand during the Covid-19 pandemic. According to the IEA, coal use will remain near these historic levels until at least 2027, despite global efforts to transition to renewable energy.
Countries struggling with high gas prices continue to rely heavily on coal, reinforcing its critical role in global energy systems.
Asia’s Growing Reliance on Coal
China leads the surge in coal demand, consuming 30% more coal than all other countries combined. The IEA predicts that China’s coal use will grow 1% in 2024, reaching 4.9 billion tonnes, a new record.
India follows closely with significant growth in coal consumption. The country’s demand is expected to rise over 5% in 2024, reaching 1.3 billion tonnes. This figure highlights India’s dependence on coal to fuel its rapidly expanding energy needs.
In contrast, developed economies like the United States and the European Union are reducing coal use. Coal power generation in the US is forecast to decline by 5% in 2023, while the EU expects a 12% drop. In the United Kingdom, coal power generation ended in September when the Ratcliffe-on-Soar plant closed ahead of its 2024 deadline.
While developed countries reduce coal reliance, China and India’s growing energy demands continue to sustain global coal consumption at near-record levels.
Renewable Energy Slows Coal Growth but Risks Persist
Renewable energy advancements are helping stabilize coal demand, even as electricity needs increase globally. The IEA predicts that coal consumption will plateau through 2027, driven by significant investments in clean energy technologies.
Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s director of energy markets, emphasizes renewables’ transformative impact. “Clean energy technologies are reshaping electricity production, which accounts for two-thirds of coal use,” he says. These innovations are crucial in preventing further spikes in coal demand despite rising global energy needs.
However, challenges remain. Short-term factors like weather conditions and surging electricity demand could temporarily increase coal reliance, particularly in China, the world’s largest coal consumer. Extreme weather events or unexpected energy shortages could disrupt the current trajectory toward cleaner energy solutions.
Balancing Coal Demand with Sustainability Goals
The growing energy needs in China and India highlight the complexity of reducing global coal reliance. Their policies and energy choices will significantly shape coal trends over the next decade.
While renewable energy offers hope, the continued dependence on coal in developing economies underscores the difficulty of transitioning to cleaner energy. Accelerating investments in renewable solutions is vital to minimizing environmental damage and ensuring a sustainable energy future.
As the world navigates increasing energy demands, coal remains a dominant yet contentious part of the energy landscape. This reliance underscores the urgency of finding innovative and scalable energy solutions to balance growth with sustainability.