Record-Breaking Decline in New Marriages
China is set to record its lowest number of new marriages since records began. Official data reveals a sharp drop despite extensive government efforts to promote marriage and raise birth rates.
In the first three quarters of 2024, 4.74 million marriages were registered. This marks a 16.6% drop from 5.69 million in the same period last year, according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs. The downward trend continues from a 2013 peak of over 13 million marriages. Experts predict 2024’s total could fall below 2022’s record low of 6.83 million.
Last year’s rise in marriage numbers was linked to pent-up demand after COVID-19 restrictions eased. However, China’s population has declined for two straight years. The 2022 birth rate was the lowest since the People’s Republic of China’s founding in 1949. India has since overtaken China as the world’s most populous nation.
Government Efforts and Social Challenges
Officials link declining marriage rates to lower birth rates, as social norms and regulations discourage unmarried couples from having children. To reverse this trend, the government has launched financial incentives and promotional campaigns encouraging marriage and childbirth.
Initiatives include blind dating events, mass wedding ceremonies, and efforts to reduce “bride price” payments. High bride prices often prevent poorer rural men from marrying. Since 2022, the Family Planning Association has introduced pilot programs to foster a “new-era marriage and childbearing culture” that promotes early marriage and childbirth.
Despite these efforts, many young adults delay marriage or avoid it entirely. Economic pressures like high unemployment, rising living costs, and inadequate social welfare discourage marriage and family life. Decades of population control policies have also reduced the pool of young people eligible for marriage. The one-child policy, relaxed in 2015 to allow two children and expanded to three in 2021, failed to reverse declining marriage and birth rates.
Shifting social attitudes also play a role. Educated, financially independent young women face workplace discrimination and bear the burden of traditional childcare and household duties. These factors increase disillusionment with marriage.
Since 2021, a 30-day “cooling-off” period for divorce filings has been enforced. Critics argue it makes it harder for women to leave unhealthy or abusive marriages. Data shows 1.96 million couples filed for divorce in the first nine months of this year, down 6,000 from the previous year.
China’s experience mirrors that of Japan and South Korea, where governments have struggled to reverse falling marriage and birth rates. Financial incentives and childcare support have produced limited results in these countries, reflecting the challenges China now faces.