Dutch chip equipment giant ASML Holdings NV remains confident in its business projections despite new US export restrictions targeting AI chip components for China. The company, which has been exempted from these curbs, reaffirmed its guidance for 2024 and 2025 and emphasized limited impact on its operations.
Limited Impact from US Restrictions
The US Department of Commerce recently imposed stricter controls on AI chip exports to China, aiming to curb advancements in critical technologies. However, ASML and Japan’s Tokyo Electron Ltd. were exempted, reflecting the US strategy of aligning export controls with key allies.
“We do not expect any direct material impact on our business,” ASML stated, referencing the new rules. The company acknowledged that further assessments by Dutch authorities could lead to additional restrictions on its exports, including DUV immersion lithography systems used in semiconductor fabrication.
In September, the Dutch government, in coordination with the US, implemented tighter licensing requirements for ASML’s sales to China, including spare parts and software updates.
Unchanged Guidance and Long-Term Optimism
ASML maintained its revenue forecast for 2025 at €30 billion to €35 billion, with approximately 20% of sales expected from China. This comes despite a significant reduction in its earlier projections for Chinese contributions, which accounted for nearly half of its revenue in the first three quarters of 2024.
The company’s stock, which suffered a sharp decline after weaker-than-expected third-quarter earnings in October, has since recovered amid positive long-term projections shared at its investor day. ASML expects annual revenue to grow to €44 billion–€60 billion by 2030, driven by strong global demand for semiconductor wafers rather than region-specific factors.
CEO Christophe Fouquet emphasized the company’s bullish outlook, projecting gross margins to rise to 56%–60%, up from the current 51%. “When it comes to 2030, we are still very, very optimistic,” Fouquet said.
ASML’s resilience underscores its pivotal role in the semiconductor industry, even as geopolitical tensions and regulatory pressures continue to reshape global tech markets.