Many finance heavyweights have chosen sides, but Wall Street appears to be betting on a Trump victory in this year’s presidential race.
Betting markets currently favor former President Donald Trump, and financial markets seem to have priced in a Trump win, according to billionaire investor Stan Druckenmiller. Barclays analyst Emmanuel Cau also noted that European stocks are trading at a discount, possibly due to concerns over potential tariffs under Trump.
In a recent SumZero survey of its investor community—which includes small hedge funds, family offices, private equity firms, and other industry players—53% of respondents predict a Trump victory. While the survey polled just 119 members, it reflects the sentiment of a significant segment of investors managing considerable assets. Respondents suggested a Trump win would benefit companies in fossil fuels, financials, and U.S. industrials, while sectors like renewable energy, ESG investments, and retail could face challenges. SumZero, co-founded by Divya Narendra, has over 16,000 investors sharing insights on its platform.
This outlook isn’t exclusive to Trump supporters. Ken Griffin, Citadel founder and major GOP donor, has been a Trump critic, calling him a “three-time loser” in 2022. However, at the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh, Griffin predicted Trump would edge out Vice President Kamala Harris, though he noted it would be close. “Trump is favored, but it’s almost a coin toss,” Griffin said.
Prediction markets, which have surged in popularity with the growth of online gambling in the U.S., also lean toward Trump. Druckenmiller added in mid-October that markets seem “very convinced” of a Republican win.
However, Wall Street has been wrong before. Few mainstream investors backed Trump in 2016 when he unexpectedly defeated Hillary Clinton. This time, prominent billionaires like Tesla CEO Elon Musk are supporting Trump, so a victory wouldn’t surprise investors. One of the world’s most respected economists, Christophe Barraud, has even staked his credibility on a Trump win.
Still, for major finance figures like Griffin, the race remains too close to call. “We are at this moment of peak uncertainty,” he said.
