In the final national presidential poll before Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a 4-point lead over former President Donald Trump, according to a poll conducted by Marist and sponsored by NPR and PBS. The survey of 1,297 likely voters shows Harris with 51% of the vote, compared to Trump’s 47%, with 2% supporting a third-party candidate. The poll’s margin of error is ±3.5 percentage points, meaning the results are statistically significant.
Harris has made notable gains, particularly among male voters, where Trump’s lead has shrunk dramatically. The poll now shows Trump ahead 51%-47% among men, but that’s a far smaller margin than his previous 16-point lead in earlier surveys. Harris also maintains a strong lead among women, 55%-45%, though her margin with female voters has slightly narrowed from an 18-point lead in earlier polls.
Of the respondents who had already cast their ballots, 56% supported Harris, while 53% of those who hadn’t yet voted preferred Trump. The poll was conducted by phone, text, and online from October 31 to November 2, with 55% of participants reporting that they had already voted.
Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, noted that Harris appears well-positioned to win the popular vote, but securing the 270 electoral votes needed to claim the presidency remains a challenging task. “Harris is well-positioned to carry the popular vote for president but needs to navigate a narrow path to achieving 270 in the Electoral College,” Miringoff said. “Trump’s high negatives continue to be a significant hurdle for his campaign.”
The Marist poll adds to a growing trend of momentum shifting toward Harris in the final days of the campaign. Other recent polls, including a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll, show Harris performing well even in traditionally red states like Iowa, which had previously been considered safe for Trump. Nationally, polling suggests the race remains tight, though Harris seems to be gaining traction.
Understanding the Margin of Error and Polling Trends
As with all polls, it’s important to consider the margin of error, which measures the potential range of error in the results. When a candidate’s lead is within this margin, the race is considered a “statistical tie,” according to the Pew Research Center. In this case, the 4-point margin is outside the margin of error, signaling a meaningful lead for Harris.
Pollsters have refined their methods since the 2016 and 2020 elections, in which Trump’s performance was underestimated by several surveys. Pew Research has found that many polling organizations have made adjustments to their approaches in order to improve accuracy, suggesting that the results of this final poll could provide a clearer picture of the electorate heading into Election Day.
