Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are signaling a lot about their final campaign tactics by dedicating their most valuable remaining asset: time. In the closing days of the 2024 race, both candidates have focused on the seven pivotal swing states. Harris visited Wisconsin on Friday, Georgia and North Carolina on Saturday, and is in Michigan today. Trump’s schedule has seen him in Michigan and Wisconsin on Friday, North Carolina on Saturday, and today in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, after both contenders campaigned in Nevada and Arizona on Thursday.
Trump has adopted a particularly unexpected strategy, spending Friday in New Mexico and Saturday in Virginia, two states that haven’t backed a Republican presidential candidate in two decades. His campaign even added a last-minute rally in New Hampshire with GOP Vice Presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance, though none of these states are generally viewed as “toss-ups” by major election analysts. This unusual approach suggests the potential for last-minute surprises in a chaotic race.
For Harris, expanding her map is looking increasingly plausible. A recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed her with a 3-point lead among likely voters in Iowa—a state that has leaned heavily Republican in recent years and was previously considered a safe Trump win. Other polls still show Trump with a slight lead, but his struggle with older women in the Midwest could spell trouble.
Both campaigns are placing significant emphasis on Pennsylvania, the most pivotal swing state. For Harris, winning the “Blue Wall” states—Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan—and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District would secure victory, even if Trump sweeps the other swing states. Conversely, a Trump victory in Pennsylvania would make Harris’s path much tougher, as she would need to add Georgia or North Carolina to her win column, in addition to Michigan and Wisconsin.
North Carolina crucial
Trump’s concentrated efforts in North Carolina suggest a crucial battleground, with him spending more time there than anywhere besides Pennsylvania. Harris held a rally in Charlotte on Saturday before making a surprise appearance on Saturday Night Live in New York. Trump currently leads by just over one percentage point in North Carolina according to polling averages. Though Democrats have rarely won the state in recent years, with Obama being the only Democrat to carry it since 2000, Trump’s margin there was narrow against Biden in 2020.
Harris’s team responded to Trump’s focus on North Carolina with skepticism. “Donald Trump is worried about losing North Carolina,” Harris spokesperson Ammar Moussa tweeted, punctuated by siren emojis. Doug Sosnik, a seasoned advisor to Bill Clinton and a North Carolina native, expressed doubt about Harris’s chances there, noting Democrats’ consistent struggles in the state except for Obama’s win.
However, Trump’s team countered, suggesting it’s Harris who’s concerned. “President Trump is leading in every battleground state and going on offense in traditionally Democratic states like New Mexico and Virginia,” said Trump spokesperson Karoline Leavitt, adding that Harris is “on defense” by focusing resources on Black voter turnout and sending Bill Clinton to New Hampshire.
Susan Roberts, a political science professor at Davidson College, highlighted another factor in North Carolina’s unpredictability: a large influx of new residents since 2020. North Carolina ranks among the top states in population growth, adding roughly 99,000 new residents each year on average since then.
Additionally, Trump faces logistical issues in North Carolina as some of his strongest counties have been affected by Hurricane Helene, forcing officials to relocate polling sites. If North Carolina becomes a tight race, Roberts anticipates heightened scrutiny of votes in the state’s western regions, with concerns about meeting ballot deadlines in these areas.
