As Election Day nears, the intense U.S. presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump approaches its conclusion. Over 68 million Americans have already voted, signaling high engagement in a contest marked by unexpected twists and turns.
Throughout the campaign, Trump has capitalized on economic concerns, consistently a top priority for voters. Initially, when President Joe Biden was the expected Democratic candidate, economic issues posed a significant challenge despite steady job gains and low unemployment post-COVID-19. But with rising inflation, many voters remain anxious about the economy. Although wages have grown, elevated prices continue to impact household budgets.
After Biden stepped down in July and Harris took the helm as the Democratic candidate, she quickly prioritized economic issues, pledging to combat price gouging and unveiling a comprehensive economic agenda. Her focus allowed her to close the gap with Trump in the polls.
As both candidates make their final appeals, polls show a tight race, particularly in battleground states.
Tight Contests in Key States
Harris’s potential path to the required 270 electoral votes hinges on sweeping Democratic strongholds and securing victories in swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. These three states, forming the critical “blue wall,” supported Democratic candidates from 1992 to 2012 but have been less reliable in recent elections.
In 2016, Trump breached this blue wall, winning all three states by appealing to working-class voters, particularly independents and union members. However, in 2020, Biden narrowly flipped them back to the Democratic column, also winning Nebraska’s Omaha-centered 2nd District. Current polling suggests Harris may hold a lead there as well, making these regions crucial to her campaign strategy.
To counter Trump’s strength in the Sun Belt, Harris has devoted significant effort to these states, emphasizing her vision for economic growth and stability.
Competitive Sun Belt States
Trump previously held a strong lead in states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. However, Harris has energized young and minority voters, who were less enthusiastic about Biden, to make the Sun Belt states competitive.
In Nevada, Republicans seem to have an early voting advantage, but with many mail-in ballots yet to be counted, the outcome remains uncertain. The economy and immigration are key issues in the region, areas that traditionally favor Trump. However, Harris has reduced Trump’s edge on economic matters while resonating strongly with voters on issues like abortion, democracy, and middle-class support.
Potential for a Historic Gender Gap
Initially, Biden maintained a modest lead with women voters, while Trump was favored among men. With Harris as the nominee, the potential to elect the nation’s first female president may lead to a record gender gap.
A major factor behind Harris’s support among women is her stance on abortion rights. Since the Supreme Court’s 2022 reversal of Roe v. Wade, millions of women in some states face severe abortion restrictions, while other states have bolstered access. Harris has underscored this issue in recent campaign stops, an approach that also benefited Democrats in the 2022 midterms.
Meanwhile, Trump has reached out to conservative-leaning male audiences, gaining traction among young Black and Latino men, according to recent polls.
Polling Highlights
A late-October poll by The New York Times and Siena College showed Trump with a 14-point lead among male voters (55% to 41%) while Harris held a 12-point advantage among women (54% to 42%). Overall, the survey revealed a neck-and-neck race, with each candidate earning 48% support.
