In October, the U.S. economy added just 12,000 jobs, falling significantly short of the 106,000 jobs economists had forecasted. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, as expected.
The impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which hit several states in late September and early October, is believed to have slowed job growth. “October’s data are the first collected since Hurricanes Helene and Milton struck the United States,” the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) noted in its report. The storms caused extensive damage, especially across the southeastern U.S., and disrupted hiring plans for many businesses.
Acting Secretary of Labor Julie Su attributed the weak job growth primarily to these natural disasters. “Businesses in affected areas, especially those ramping up for the holiday season, were forced to pause or slow hiring,” Su explained.
According to the BLS household survey, 512,000 nonfarm workers missed work due to severe weather in October—well above the 63,000 average for the month over the past 20 years. Additionally, labor strikes also impacted the month’s job figures. The BLS noted that 44,000 workers, including hotel staff and Boeing employees, were on strike as the data was being collected.
Economists say that these factors may lead the Federal Reserve to interpret October’s employment report with caution when determining whether to adjust interest rates. “The Fed will likely look through the noisy October jobs report and consider broader labor market data, which shows a gradual downshift in job creation,” noted Lydia Boussour, senior economist at EY-Parthenon.
Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, said the report aligns with a broader labor market slowdown. “While it’s largely driven by the hurricanes and strikes, it also reflects a labor market that’s expanding, but at a slower pace,” she explained, adding that job growth is increasingly concentrated in specific sectors.
The mixed job report could complicate the Fed’s interest-rate decisions into next year. Following the report’s release, market traders largely anticipated a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed next week, down from the 50-basis-point cut in September.
This jobs report is the last one before the upcoming presidential election on Tuesday. In an October poll from AP-NORC, 43% of registered voters indicated they trust Kamala Harris on jobs and unemployment, while 41% said they trust Donald Trump.
