ORLANDO, Fla. — In the wake of devastating storms, Treasure Island’s Mayor Tyler Payne announced plans to leave the barrier island, a decision fueled by severe damage to his home from Hurricane Helene and financial constraints preventing him from rebuilding.
Payne, who has served as mayor for over three years and is a fourth-generation resident, expressed his sorrow in a message to the community, stating, “While it pains my heart to make this decision amidst our recovery from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, this is what’s best for my family.”
Along Florida’s hurricane-hit Gulf Coast, many residents are grappling with similar dilemmas: Can they afford to rebuild? What will insurance cover? Those contemplating a move to Florida are questioning whether the risk is worth it in a state prone to hurricanes.
These existential concerns arise after every active hurricane season, similar to what happened after four hurricanes hit the state in 2004. Despite the threat of storms, Florida’s population has surged by one-third over the past two decades, reaching 23 million residents. Last year alone, the state added over 365,000 new residents, trailing only Texas.
While Florida’s real estate market has shown signs of cooling—September home sales fell by 12% compared to the previous year—experts suggest that rising interest rates and skyrocketing insurance costs have played a more significant role than the recent hurricanes.
“Florida recovers much faster than you might think,” said Brad O’Connor, chief economist for Florida Realtors.
What Happens After a Storm?
Research indicates that when hurricanes strike, any outbound migration tends to be temporary. If residents do leave, they often relocate short distances, such as moving from barrier islands to the mainland. Older individuals with more financial resources are more likely to return to affected areas.
In terms of the housing market, there might be an initial supply shock as homeowners await insurance reimbursements to make repairs or sell their properties. However, studies show that home prices in hurricane-impacted areas can rise by an average of 5% in the three years following a storm, as reduced supply attracts wealthier buyers.
The recovery of communities often depends on factors like insurance coverage, the speed of reimbursements, and the availability of construction workers. Stricter building codes implemented after Hurricane Andrew in 1992 mean that newer homes can better withstand hurricanes.
“If a property is damaged and uninsured, there are always people willing to purchase that valuable land,” O’Connor explained. “New homes are built under updated codes, mitigating the impact of future hurricanes.”
Short-Term and Long-Term Trends
Recent storms illustrate both immediate and lasting impacts on communities. After Hurricane Ian struck Lee County—once one of the fastest-growing areas in the U.S.—population growth slowed from 4.4% to 1.5%, and the number of households decreased from about 340,000 to 326,000.
In 2019, most United Van Lines moves into Lee County were inbound, but this has shifted; as of 2023-2024, two-thirds of moves are inbound and one-third outbound. The demographic landscape has also changed, with more men without spouses or partners, reflecting an influx of construction and recovery workers.
Bay County, where Hurricane Michael made landfall as a Category 5 storm in 2018, offers insights into longer-term recovery. Four years later, its population has rebounded, becoming more diverse, wealthier, and older, with the median age rising and households earning $200,000 or more increasing from 4.3% to 8.3%.
The Mayor’s Decision
In his farewell message, Mayor Payne expressed his intent to stay connected with the Treasure Island community, as his parents plan to rebuild on the island. Known for its motels and restaurants along the Gulf of Mexico, Payne’s decision was not taken lightly.
“I completely empathize with the difficult decisions that are facing so many of our residents,” he shared, highlighting the shared challenges of those affected by the storms.
