While Donald Trump celebrates his victory in the 2024 presidential election, another reason for optimism has emerged: the very real possibility that he may never face sentencing for the 34 felony convictions he received in New York. Despite being found guilty of falsifying business records related to hush money payments to Stormy Daniels during the 2016 campaign, Trump could avoid any formal punishment. Here are several reasons why.
1. Presidential Immunity Could Block His Sentencing
One of the most significant factors working in Trump’s favor is the Supreme Court’s ruling in July 2024. In a key decision involving Trump’s federal election interference case, the Court reaffirmed the idea of presidential immunity, stating that evidence related to a president’s official duties cannot be used in criminal trials. Although the ruling specifically applied to federal cases, Trump has argued that some of the evidence used in his New York trial, including testimony from his former communications director, Hope Hicks, violates this principle.
Trump’s legal team claims that even if the hush money payments and the falsified records weren’t official presidential actions, some of the evidence presented against him was improperly introduced, violating the Supreme Court’s ruling. If Judge Juan Merchan, who oversaw Trump’s trial, rejects this argument, Trump can still appeal the decision, potentially delaying or blocking any sentencing indefinitely. Legal experts say the likelihood of the November 26 sentencing date being postponed is high due to this issue.
2. Political Backlash Could Stall Any Sentencing
Another challenge to sentencing Trump comes from the political ramifications of doing so. With Trump now elected president again, attempting to impose a sentence could provoke a massive political crisis. Mark Bederow, a New York criminal defense lawyer, argues that the national division resulting from such an action would be profound. Given the current polarized state of American politics, sentencing a newly elected president could spark widespread protests and unrest, creating an untenable situation for the judiciary.
Bederow notes that “any judge can’t ignore the 800-pound gorilla in the room,” referring to the fact that Trump just won a resounding election victory. The political volatility surrounding a potential sentence might lead the courts to reconsider proceeding, even if the legal arguments in favor of it are strong.
3. Legal Barriers Due to Trump’s Election
Trump’s election victory offers him new legal avenues to challenge any potential sentencing. The Supreme Court’s ruling on presidential immunity raised concerns about legal proceedings interfering with the duties of the president. Although that ruling applied to federal cases, Trump’s legal team could argue that similar concerns apply to state court proceedings as well. Specifically, they may argue that a state court should not be able to impose a sentence on a president-elect, as doing so could intrude on presidential prerogatives.
This argument could lead to further delays in Trump’s case. While legal experts disagree on whether these concerns apply only after Trump’s inauguration or can be raised before, the potential for additional legal hurdles is significant. This could give Trump more time to avoid sentencing, depending on how courts address these issues.
4. A Retrial Could Be Complicated
If Trump succeeds in having his convictions overturned, a retrial could become an option. However, retrying a case after such a long delay is fraught with complications. Witnesses may be unavailable, and memories could have faded, which makes it more difficult to build a compelling case. Legal experts point out that defendants in such situations often argue that retrying them after a long gap violates their constitutional right to a fair trial.
If a retrial were to occur, Trump’s defense could argue that the case should be dismissed or delayed due to the passage of time and the age of the evidence. This could delay legal proceedings even further, potentially preventing a resolution for years to come.
5. Trump’s Age Could Influence Sentencing
Even if Trump’s convictions are upheld and sentencing does eventually occur, his age may play a role in the outcome. At 78 years old, Trump is at an age where courts sometimes show leniency, particularly for defendants who have no prior criminal history. Legal experts suggest that at 82—Trump’s age at the end of his second term—the court might consider his age as a mitigating factor when determining the severity of any punishment.
Catherine Christian, a former Manhattan prosecutor, noted that for someone of Trump’s age and with no criminal record, the court might be more inclined to impose a lesser sentence or forgo one altogether. Trump’s age could be a significant factor in how any sentencing would unfold, potentially allowing him to avoid harsher penalties.
6. Changing Dynamics and Public Perception
Trump’s position has dramatically shifted since his election victory. As a president-elect, he now holds greater political leverage, and the dynamics of his legal battles have changed accordingly. With his public support higher than ever, Trump’s legal team is in a much stronger position to argue for delays or changes to the legal proceedings. The political and public perception surrounding his case could weigh heavily in how judges and courts decide to proceed.
Mark Bederow believes that the entire situation has “radically changed” since Trump’s election, putting him in a much stronger position to avoid sentencing. With the political backing Trump now has, his chances of avoiding punishment have increased, both in terms of public support and in the legal strategies available to him.
Conclusion
There are multiple factors that make it increasingly unlikely that Donald Trump will face sentencing for his 34 convictions. The Supreme Court’s ruling on presidential immunity, potential political fallout, new legal arguments based on his election, and even his age all contribute to a complex legal situation that could delay or prevent any punishment.
Trump’s legal team is in a stronger position now than ever before, and with his election victory adding political weight to his arguments, the chances of him being sentenced in the near future are slim. As Trump prepares for his second term, it’s clear that his legal battles are far from over, but his ability to avoid sentencing has been greatly enhanced.
