Germany and the UK recently signed a major defence treaty aimed at reinforcing cooperation across land, sea, air, and precision strike capabilities. Known as the Trinity House Agreement, the pact connects Germany, France, and the UK through a series of bilateral treaties, marking an important step in building European defence resilience amid concerns about future US engagement in NATO.
With the US set to elect a new president this week, European leaders are preparing for potential shifts in NATO dynamics. Germany, in particular, has been bracing for the possibility of a second Donald Trump presidency. However, experts like Dr. Aylin Matlé of the German Council on Foreign Relations suggest that even if Kamala Harris wins the election, the US could pivot more towards the Indo-Pacific, pressuring Europe to bolster its own defence capabilities.
Dr. Matlé sees the timing of the Trinity House Agreement as strategic. “Even with Harris as president, I expect the US to demand more from its European allies,” she explains. The agreement, she says, is another step towards strengthening NATO’s European pillar, alongside initiatives like the European long-range strike approach, which aims to enhance joint missile capabilities critical for defending against threats, particularly in the context of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.
While the agreement sends a clear message about Europe’s commitment to shared security, it is not yet a “silver bullet” for Europe’s defence autonomy. Dr. Matlé underscores that while this pact is politically significant, it alone won’t enable Europe to fully shoulder its defence responsibilities. Instead, it signals Europe’s willingness to step up, which is crucial given Trump’s criticism of NATO members, especially Germany, for not meeting the 2% GDP defence spending target.
The agreement aims to reassure the US that Europe understands the importance of sharing the defence burden. However, a key point remains: the Trinity House Agreement is not yet legally binding. For the pact to have full legal force, it must be formally signed by both countries’ leaders, Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Prime Minister Keir Starmer, which is expected to occur early next year.
If Trump returns to office, Europe could face renewed demands to increase its defence contributions. This agreement, then, is a proactive move to signal Europe’s commitment to reinforcing its own security, either with or without US support.
