As the 2024 election draws near, experts are closely monitoring the rise of threats of political violence, intimidation, and potential insurrection. With an increasing online presence of conspiracy theorists, disinformation spreaders, and extremist groups, many are worried about the possibility of violent confrontations in the wake of the election. Some fear a repeat of the January 6th Capitol riot, but experts say the situation is more complex and the risk is uncertain, depending largely on the results of the election.
In interviews with USA TODAY, more than a dozen experts on domestic extremism explained that while they are closely watching extremist chatter and organizing efforts, they see key differences between the current political climate and the events leading up to the 2020 election. While extremist groups continue to circulate online, the physical presence of these groups—particularly the far-right factions—is much weaker today than it was in 2020.
A Different Landscape Than 2020
Megan Squire, deputy director for data analytics at the Southern Poverty Law Center, noted that far-right groups that played a significant role in organizing the insurrection on January 6 have fragmented, with some groups disbanding or significantly losing influence. “I do not see right-wing groups on the ground in massive numbers. They’re not organizing, fundraising, or actively recruiting like they were in 2020,” Squire said. “The landscape now is wildly different.”
This shift has raised questions about whether large-scale violence is as likely in 2024 as it was in the previous election cycle. Experts suggest that while these groups are far less organized, the threat of smaller, localized incidents of violence, rather than a repeat of January 6, remains real.
Could Another January 6th Happen?
While experts caution against a direct repeat of the January 6th Capitol insurrection, some still see the potential for political violence in other forms. Colin P. Clarke, director of research at the global intelligence firm Soufan Group, says a significant show of force by law enforcement and security agencies would likely deter large-scale unrest in Washington D.C. “The deterrence in Washington will be so overwhelming that it’s unlikely we’ll see anything similar to the January 6th attack,” Clarke said. “However, smaller, localized incidents remain a concern.”
A more probable scenario could involve smaller disruptions at local vote-counting centers, particularly in key battleground states. Heidi Beirich, co-founder of the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism, believes that conspiracy theorists could target these centers, accusing them of fraud and provoking violence. “If violence is going to happen, it’s going to be at one of those local vote-counting centers where people are upset about the election process being drawn out,” she explained.
Rather than a large-scale insurrection, experts worry about an accumulation of smaller incidents at polling places and vote centers. Clarke suggested that these smaller acts of civil disobedience could escalate over time, creating a “cascading effect” of local disruptions that might lead to significant violence.
The Threat of Lone Wolf Attacks
In addition to organized violence, many experts also point to the potential for individual acts of violence from politically motivated lone actors. Jared Holt, senior research analyst at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, said that far-right extremists are especially likely to resort to violence in the event of a Trump loss. “Trump’s rhetoric has prepared his supporters for confrontation. If he loses, particularly in a close race, extremists who follow him may feel justified in taking violent action,” Holt said.
Holt pointed out that many of Trump’s followers, particularly those invested in the “election fraud” conspiracy theories, view political opponents not just as ideological adversaries but as existential threats. This perception could lead some to take violent action if they feel their beliefs are being attacked or invalidated by the election results.
Similarly, Colin Clarke warned that if Trump wins, the far-left could resort to violence in protest, especially among anti-fascist groups and anarchists. “While left-wing violence has historically been less lethal, some on the far left see a Trump victory as an existential threat and may be willing to escalate their tactics,” Clarke said.
Decline of Major Far-Right Groups
One notable trend is the decline of far-right groups that were instrumental in the January 6th insurrection. Both the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers, two of the most prominent extremist groups involved in the Capitol riot, have lost much of their influence in recent years.
According to Holt, Proud Boys members have been rarely seen in public since 2021 and have significantly decreased in number and organization. “They’ve been relegated to fringe, anonymous online groups, with very little influence compared to before,” Holt said. Similarly, the Oath Keepers, a militia group once composed of former law enforcement and military personnel, have largely disbanded following arrests and charges stemming from their involvement in January 6. The Oath Keepers and other similar militias have not reemerged in any significant way since their collapse, according to experts.
A Changing Extremist Landscape
Experts agree that the current landscape of political extremism is vastly different from what it was in 2020. The collapse of large, organized extremist groups and the decreasing presence of coordinated far-right activism on the ground has created an unpredictable environment for election-related violence.
Megan Squire emphasized that experts who monitor extremist movements must adapt their approach to understanding potential threats. “We can’t just use last time’s playbook. The landscape has changed, and we need to remain vigilant while also being aware that any new threats may not look like the ones we’ve seen before,” she said.
Conclusion
While there are concerns about the possibility of violence surrounding the 2024 election, experts agree that it is unlikely to resemble the chaos of the January 6th insurrection. Instead, the risk may come in the form of smaller, localized incidents and isolated acts of violence fueled by conspiracy theories and political extremism. The far-right remains a threat, but it is less organized than in the past. Nonetheless, the potential for unrest remains high, and authorities will be on high alert as the election results begin to take shape.
