If you check X or TikTok right now, you might think Vice President Kamala Harris is set for a landslide victory. Posts suggest that Donald Trump’s lead is slipping even in traditionally red states, citing fringe polls and alleged insider quotes. There are claims of Florida and Texas turning blue, more young and female voters registering, and even astrological hints that Harris is destined for the presidency.
On the flip side, your feed might instead suggest Trump has the election locked down. Supporters point to waves of MAGA hats spotted in California, children dressed as Trump for Halloween in Philadelphia, and Harris’s supposed lack of support in swing states compared to Biden in 2020. New Hampshire and Virginia, they claim, are shifting red, while X’s owner, Trump donor Elon Musk, interprets early voting data to predict a Republican win in Pennsylvania.
With polls neck-and-neck nationally and in swing states, voters on X and TikTok are posting as though their candidate is sure to win. These social media predictions are fueled by anxiety in a deeply polarized country where many feel this election is make-or-break. Competing electoral maps show wildly different outcomes, with some confidently claiming a Harris landslide and others, like Musk, sharing a red-dominated map based on election betting odds instead of polls. Each post may seem inconsequential, but algorithms on TikTok and X amplify these extreme projections to massive audiences.
Algorithms have long favored extreme content on social media, where the most ideologically passionate users are the most likely to post. A 2021 Pew Research study shows that social platforms often reward high-confidence, polarizing statements that evoke strong reactions, according to Ioana Literat, a professor at Columbia University. “A video saying ‘Polls are too close to tell’ won’t be the one racking up likes,” she explains.
But beyond the algorithms, people naturally dislike uncertainty, surrounding themselves with others who feel confident their candidate will win. Some platforms are attempting to reduce political divisiveness; Meta, for instance, has de-emphasized political content on Facebook, Instagram, and Threads. These changes followed accusations that Facebook harmed democracy by allowing unrestrained misinformation in past elections. Yet, misleading political ads still circulate on Meta’s platforms, according to ProPublica, which recently reported widespread deceptive ads that Meta had to address post-publication.
As X and TikTok’s influence grows, their role in political conversations has intensified. A recent Washington Post analysis showed that since Musk’s acquisition, Republican leaders have gained followers on X and gone viral more often. Meanwhile, a Wall Street Journal study found that new X accounts often encounter political content, especially pro-Trump messages, regardless of initial preferences. TikTok has also become a political hub for young voters, with half of 18- to 29-year-olds watching political content there, according to Pew. While TikTok declined to comment, the platform’s policies say unverified election claims are ineligible for recommendations and come with warnings before sharing.
This overconfidence on social media could have serious implications. Sol Messing, a research professor at NYU, warns that if one side expects a clear victory but the other wins, it could fuel challenges to the results. On X, Musk’s America PAC has recently created an Election Integrity Community, encouraging users to report potential voting issues. Some posts already display strong Trump support, such as one claiming Ohio ballots were misprinted with Trump’s name—claims that election officials say are unfounded.
Despite Trump’s frequent warnings of fraud if he loses, official campaign messages have been more cautious. Harris’s ads on Instagram urge donations and stress the need for all hands on deck, while Michelle Obama warns the race is tight. Trump, meanwhile, is encouraging early voting on X, a notable shift from 2020, when he criticized mail-in ballots.
No one can predict the outcome of Tuesday’s election. Sharing or liking election content may feel like a way to participate, but it only feeds the tension. “It’s a period of high anxiety,” says Literat. “But content that offers certainty, or plays to hopes or fears, spreads faster.” For those looking to avoid that anxiety, stepping away from social media until Election Day might be the best course.
