Hong Kong
Recent reports of thousands of North Korean troops arriving in Russia for training have raised alarms that they may be deployed to support Moscow in its conflict in Ukraine. This development has prompted concern among the U.S. and its allies about the increasing coordination between countries opposed to the West, suggesting a potentially serious security threat as these partnerships evolve into more direct military alliances.
In addition to North Korea, Iran has been actively involved, supplying hundreds of drones to aid Russia’s military operations in Ukraine. Last month, the U.S. accused Tehran of sending short-range ballistic missiles to Russia as well. Meanwhile, China has been implicated in bolstering Russia’s war efforts through the provision of “dual-use” goods, such as microelectronics and machinery that can be utilized for weapons production. Recently, the U.S. penalized two Chinese companies for supplying complete weapon systems, although all three countries deny providing military support.
A congressional group evaluating U.S. defense strategy has labeled Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea as an “axis of growing malign partnerships,” highlighting the shared animosity these nations hold towards the U.S. This collaboration amplifies the threat each poses to Washington and its allies across multiple regions.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin remarked that North Korea’s potential role as a co-belligerent could have serious repercussions not only in Europe but also in the Indo-Pacific region.
A New Alignment?
Decades after the Axis powers of World War II and the Cold War’s anti-West coalition, there’s a perception of a new and dangerous alignment emerging, spurred by Russia’s ongoing conflict. This alliance could unite nuclear-armed nations, with North Korea believed to possess numerous illegal warheads and Iran capable of assembling one within weeks.
North Korea’s military partnership with Russia links the current conflict in Ukraine with heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula, where North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has intensified threats against South Korea. In light of North Korean troop deployments, South Korea is reconsidering its stance on supplying weapons to Ukraine.
For North Korea, sending millions of artillery rounds and short-range missiles, and now troops, to Russia appears beneficial. In return, Pyongyang has likely received food and resources, and possibly support for its missile and space programs.
The increasing significance of drone warfare in Ukraine has prompted Russia to seek Iranian support, further solidifying their security partnership that began during the Syrian conflict in 2015. For Iran, supplying weapons to Russia not only boosts its defense sector amid heavy Western sanctions but also provides diplomatic cover through its alliances with Beijing and Moscow.
Although Chinese leader Xi Jinping declared a “no limits” partnership with Putin shortly before the invasion, he has claimed neutrality in the conflict while steering Chinese firms away from direct lethal aid. Nevertheless, China has filled gaps in Russia’s supply needs, benefiting from discounted energy while expanding military drills and diplomatic ties.
Despite the motivations for cooperation, analysts caution that significant limits exist in the coordination and mutual trust among these nations. “These relationships are driven by survival strategies, influenced by geopolitical crises,” noted Alex Gabuev from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
China’s Role in the New Dynamic
China is viewed as the most powerful player in this grouping, acting as the primary trade partner for Russia, North Korea, and Iran. As tensions with the U.S. escalate, Beijing is actively challenging U.S. global leadership and seeking to reshape international norms in favor of itself and other authoritarian regimes.
The recent BRICS summit highlighted this alignment, with Xi and Putin promoting their commitment to building a “fairer” global order. China has also engaged Iran diplomatically, even as it strengthens ties with wealthier Gulf nations.
While China manages its relationship with North Korea cautiously, it is wary of the implications of a closer Kim-Putin partnership, which could draw more U.S. attention to the region. Chinese officials have downplayed reports of North Korean troop movements into Russia, indicating a desire to maintain a measured stance.
From a Western perspective, China’s continued economic ties with both North Korea and Russia are often interpreted as tacit support for these regimes. A recent U.S. defense strategy report warned that the growing partnership among these nations poses a real risk of multi-theater conflict.
China insists that its relationship with Russia is characterized by “non-alliance” and “non-confrontation.” Meanwhile, NATO has increased collaboration with U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific region, highlighting the shifting dynamics.
In the short term, Russia’s arms partnerships may enable Iran and North Korea to acquire sensitive weapon technologies. The risk of coordination among these nations in future conflicts—such as potential tensions in the South China Sea—raises questions about their interactions and shared strategies.
Some experts caution against viewing this alignment as inevitable, noting that relationships remain opportunistic rather than founded on deep ideological commitments. Nonetheless, the risk of future conflicts involving multiple adversaries remains significant, indicating that the geopolitical landscape is shifting rapidly.
